Nifty Quarterly Chart Analysis

• Since 2008, 3 times Nifty has given 4 quarters consecutive negative returns  
• 1st - Jan 2008 to Dec 2008 - Nifty Range - 6357.1 - 2252.75 
• 2nd - Jan 2011 to Dec 2011 - Nifty Range - 6181.05 - 4531.15
• 3rd - April 2015 to March 2016 - Nifty Range - 8844.8 - 6825.8
• Last quarter (July - Sept 2019) has given negative return. Nifty range 11981.75 -10637.15 
• In last 11 years, whenever 2 red candles (quarterly) are formed, then same trend continues for 2 more quarters. 
• Caution: If on 31st Dec. 2019, Nifty closes below 11515.20 then we might be heading for more fall in next 6 months. 

Now the next Question how much NIFTY can fall?

1st Scenario - 25% Fall - Nifty Target of 8986 

4 Quarter Fall cycle	High	Low	Difference	% fall from    high
1st	6357.1	2252.75	4104.35	65%
2nd	6181.05	4531.15	1649.9	27%
3rd	8844.8	6825.8	2019	23%
4th(In formation)	11981.75	8986.313	2995.438	25%

2nd Scenario - 20% Fall - Nifty Target of 9585

4 Quarter Fall cycle	High	Low	Difference	% fall from high
1st	6357.1	2252.75	4104.35	65%
2nd	6181.05	4531.15	1649.9	27%
3rd	8844.8	6825.8	2019	23%
4th(In formation)	11981.75	9585.4	2396.35	20%

Yes Bank - Near Support

On Tuesday  Yes Bank managed to close above previous support area of 160 -165. After fall on 21st Sept. 2018, this range of 160-165 has acted as support 5-6 times. It will be interesting to watch whether this time it shows same respect to this level. If stock closes below 160, it might fall upto 125-130. 

Nifty - Triple Top

• If Nifty fails to cross Friday's high on closing basis, this is Triple Top
• Then in next 7-8 sessions we will see 10000 on Nifty

Last Hope 5178

Nifty has broken 5440, once it goes below 5348....5178 is the last hope for bulls.

Technical Analysis - Nifty

• Nifty this week drifted from 5293 to 4955, finally closed to 5036 on Friday
• Positive aspect is on Friday Nifty bounced back from low of 4955 & closed at 5036 level, which shows "Hammer" - indicates Bullish Reversal.
• Bullish reversal is only confirmed if next trading day, market should open gap up or show buying pressure or long white candlesticks.

What is Hammer ?

• The market is in downtrend
• Small body at the upper end of the trading range
• Color of this body is not important
• Long lower shadow at least twice the length of the body
• Little or no upper shadow

Market Technicals

• May be Nifty moving towards 4122 once it breaks 4353
• PE Target achieved

Market - Technical

• Last week we saw bounce book in the market, sensex climbed above 15000 level & nifty crossed 4500
• On friday market failed to close above 4600
• Today market may open 0.5% - 0.75% down
• Support for the nifty is 4353, if breaks this level it may go up to 4122
• If today market closes in red, it'll confirm that we are moving towards 4353